Well, Maybe We Were Overconfident
From Walter C. Uhler, Huffington Post:
Perhaps that explains why, during “a little-noticed exchange” [Ibid] at the 27 February 2007 session of the Senate Armed Services Committee, an official from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence seized the opportunity to publicly soften earlier intelligence findings about North Korea’s uranium enrichment program. “We still have confidence that the program is in existence” but now “at the mid-confidence level.” [Ibid]
Yet, it was during that very same session that the Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, Lt. Gen. Michael D. Maples, boldly asserted: “Although Iran claims its program is focused on producing commercial electric power, DIA assesses with high confidence Iran remains determined to develop nuclear weapons.” [“Current and Projected National Security Threats to the United States,” 27 February 2007, p. 14]
Read that carefully and remember how confident the Bush Administration was that North Korea was actively enriching uranium in an effort to develop nuclear weapons. Now it’s Iran, despite the projection by experts that even if Iran WERE developing nukes, they are nowhere near the goal, according to expert testimony of the hawks claiming that Iran is out there readying nukes:
And when Senator Hillary Clinton asked McConnell, “What is the best estimate of the U.S. intelligence community for how long it would take for Iran to develop nuclear weapons and a capacity to deliver them?” McConnell replied, “The earliest they could produce a nuclear weapon would be early next decade, more likely mid-next decade.”
Thus, while Americans might take comfort in knowing that there’s plenty of time for diplomacy with Iran, they should be disturbed to find nothing in the prepared testimony presented by either General Maples or Director McConnell – and certainly nothing contained in their answers to the questions asked by the members of the Senate Armed Services Committee – that could be considered hard or direct evidence that substantiates the assessment that “Iran remains determined to develop nuclear weapons.”
The projection of “mid-next decade” supports the research that I wrote about last month.
Consider this: We are now going to have inspectors on the ground in North Korea. It is likely that with some diplomacy and clear-headedness there is a way to a much saner solution than yet another war — this time, against Iran. There are times for quick action and times to use more creative and gentler methods. During the past six years, I’ve seen plenty of opportunity for the latter and no reason for the former. Let’s force Bush to break precedent and back off from his sabre-rattling with Iran.
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