As I mentioned last night, the meeting of the RBC today is meaningless. Harold Ickes, in high dudgeon, dramatically reserved Senator Clinton’s right to ‘take the Michigan compromise to the credentials committee.”

Clinton supporters, in addition to being incredibly rude and unruly, are unhappy that Obama was given ANY delegates in Michigan, just as I suspected. Everything turns on the Four State Pledge signed by all candidates where they agreed to this paragraph:

THEREFORE, I _______________, Democratic Candidate for President, pledge
I shall not campaign or participate in any state which schedules a presidential
election primary or caucus before Feb. 5, 2008, except for the states of Iowa,
Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina, as “campaigning” is defined by
rules and regulations of the DNC.

Everything turns on the word “participate”. A couple of facts:

1. Michigan automatically adds names to their ballot for their primary on the day that candidates declare their candidacy. Michigan also has a rule allowing candidates to remove their names from the ballot.
2. Florida does not have a similar provision allowing candidates to remove their names from the ballot. Once names are there, they’re there.

Participate has an active and passive definition. The active definition is “be involved in; enter a race; enter an agreement; enter negotiation;” The passive definition is to ‘become a participant’ by default (e.g., having one’s name added to a ballot)

If one does not actively pursue adding their name to the ballot, then the term ‘to participate’ has to be interpreted as leaving it there.

Therefore, the only way to stay consistent with the pledge was to withdraw their name from the ballot. Further, voters for Edwards, Obama and Biden were urged by the Michigan Democratic party to vote ‘uncommitted’ to express their preference for unlisted candidates. They did so, with the assumption that either no votes would count, or their ‘uncommitted votes’ would be allocated to some candidate in some fashion later on.

For anyone to argue that Obama wasn’t entitled to any delegates is simply dishonest. For any DEMOCRAT to argue for voter’s rights while simultaneously moving to disenfranchise 238,000 Michigan voters proves the cynical basis for the original argument.

Obama needs 68 delegates to reach the now-firm delegate number of 2118. He will likely win 43-45 after the final primaries. He only needs 28-30 superdelegates to reach the nomination. If an additional 40 superdelegates make a public commitment, the threat of the credentials committee appeal will be irrelevant.

It would be good for Hillary Clinton to be gracious on Tuesday night. It would certainly go far toward healing the very large breach and softening me toward her and her rude, obnoxious supporters who were so incredibly harsh in Washington DC today.

It would be good, but don’t hold your breath.

For more info about the credentials committee, see my post on Delegate Voodoo.

No matter what you might hear, the Puerto Rico popular vote does not count, particularly when applied to the specious argument that one candidate or the other is ‘winning the general election’ that we haven’t had yet.

…Because the Clinton campaign has drawn a deep line in the sand, a line which can only be resolved with the intervention of the credentials committee.

However, there is another way. The pledged delegates and superdelegates, with the press, can make her irrelevant. It’s time to start doing that.

There will be some sort of resolution in the rules committee, but it will not be acceptable to Senator Clinton. Therefore, she will continue on through the convention, but it is possible to silence her divisiveness if the pledged and superdelegates pledge unity to the candidate who won legitimately by the rules, and the press quits calling this as a horserace.

California delegates have pledged unity and a goal to win in November. Let’s see if they will lead the way.

Photo: Larry C. Johnson’s self portrait,
as published on the Huffington Post

If this guy is a friend of Hillary Clinton’s, she really doesn’t need any enemies. With screeds like this where imaginary terrorists named William Ayers become arguments against Barack Obama 5 days ahead of the West Virginia and Kentucky primaries, the excrable Larry Johnson displays the worst and ugliest of the Bush/McCain administrations while stumping for..

a Democrat. And not just any Democrat. Hillary Clinton.

His bio is revealing:

Larry C. Johnson is CEO and co-founder of BERG Associates, LLC, an international business-consulting firm that helps corporations and governments manage threats posed by terrorism and money laundering. Mr. Johnson works with US military commands in scripting terrorism exercises, briefs foreign governments on a regular basis on terrorist trends, and conducts undercover investigations on product counterfeiting and smuggling.

If you’re inclined to read the entire bio, you’ll discover two important facts. First, he was probably Barack Obama’s age (6) during the Weather Underground times and only knows what he’s read from biased right-wing liars. Second, he worked for the CIA at important, critical junctures, up to and including the year 1989, when the CIA should have been gathering and reporting the intelligence that could have prevented the 9/11 attacks. The CIA failures that caused George Tenet to fall on his sword. Yes, that CIA.

Of course, it also goes without saying that those same years in the CIA that have earned him such “acclaim” were also the Clinton years. Of course, it is true that they were a little distracted there at the end.

How unfortunate that he would go ballistic on Hillary Clinton’s behalf and write this:

Hillary’s only hope is that the super delegates will come to their senses and realize that Barack Obama’s relationships with the corrupt Tony Rezko, the racist-wife stealing Jeremiah Wright, and the unrepentant terrorist Bill Ayers will provide the Republicans with ammunition they have never had at hand to use against the Democrats’ candidate. This is particularly true of that flag stomper, Bill Ayers.

No, those are no hopes at all for Hillary. None. Zero. I’d like to think she’s learned her lesson when it comes to relying on this stuff. See, this year the voters are all about authenticity. Even the ones who didn’t go to college are thinking. (Note: If you believe any of the guano Johnson is tossing, you’re NOT thinking. Start.)

In actuality, the flag stomper is Mr. Johnson, who qualifies in my book as the same kind of government shill that was doing the dirty work for the Bushies with the networks when they were loaned out by the government as “consultants and commentators“.

So, Mr. Johnson, let me put this plainly. Bill Ayers ain’t going to play much of anywhere other than backwater areas where they only get Fox News and actually believe the shit they try to pass off as fact. Why? BECAUSE BILL CLINTON PARDONED TWO WEATHER UNDERGROUND CRIMINALS AND BILL AYERS WAS NOT CONVICTED OF SQUAT.

Got it? Good.

The rest of Johnson’s rant is just irrational. It hasn’t worked for the past month and it’s not going to work now. Ayers isn’t going to play no matter how desperately Bob Novak (aka Mr. “Out Valerie Plame”) wants to think so.

And Mr. Johnson, consider this. Not one time has Barack Obama pointed out Whitewater, the White House travel scandal, the “Lincoln Bedroom for campaign cash” scam, or Bill Clinton’s impeachment. Not one time. Surrogates speaking for Hillary Clinton should consider their own conduct in this regard.

This desperate gasp on Mr. Johnson’s part confirms what I’ve believed all along. The GOP was desperate for Clinton to be the Democratic candidate, believing that they had 1200 pages of dirt to serve up in the upcoming national campaign. Now that the majority of voters (no matter how you cut it, with and without Florida and Michigan, by the way) have said they choose Barack Obama, the GOP knows the inevitable truth.

In November, they will lose the White House and the Congress. There will be a sweeping mandate, and there won’t be a goddamn thing they can do about it.

The Republicans’ chickens are coming home to roost.

Technorati Tags: Huffington Post, William Ayers, Bob Novak, GOP, Republican chickens, roost, chickenshit, head up his ass

Just in case there’s any doubt whatsoever, here is a reasonable prediction of the remaining primaries; indeed, almost a best-case prediction, including Florida and Michigan with no penalty. Obama has 259 Superdelegates right now. The math is inevitable.

[edited to give Senator Clinton the correct FL/MI delegates and reset remaining to 50/50 for more accurate forecast]

So don’t ever forget that this election is not about me, or any candidate. Don’t ever forget that this campaign is about you – about your hopes, about your dreams, about your struggles, about securing your portion of the American Dream.

Don’t ever forget that we have a choice in this country – that we can choose not to be divided; that we can choose not to be afraid; that we can still choose this moment to finally come together and solve the problems we’ve talked about all those other years in all those other elections.

This time can be different than all the rest. This time we can face down those who say our road is too long; that our climb is too steep; that we can no longer achieve the change that we seek. This is our time to answer the call that so many generations of Americans have answered before – by insisting that by hard work, and by sacrifice, the American Dream will endure. Thank you, and may God Bless the United States of America.

- Barack Obama, 5/6/08

No, Barack, thank you. For staying focused on the goal and keeping your hopes up. Thanks to you, my disenfranchised 27-year old homeless veteran son put on his Obama ‘08 shirt tonight and left his cynicism at the door.

Yes, we can.

Technorati Tags: primaries, democrats, north carolina, indiana, yeswecan

Live Internet coverage of today’s North Carolina and Indiana primaries:

1. You can follow Debi Jones by going to my Live Feed page or directly to her Qik page, where she’ll be streaming live from her Nokia N95.

   Debi is planning to visit the Obama HQ in Wilmington in the morning, then head up to Raleigh Obama HQ and the polls.

2. Newsgang Live will have a special show tomorrow night after the polls close in North Carolina and Indiana. Most Indiana polls close at 6pm Central, but 12 close at 7 pm Eastern, 4pm Pacific. Early voting has been heavy (nearly 168,000 ballots cast), and those ballots will be counted tomorrow, so there should be some indicator of early results shortly after the polls close. North Carolina polls close at 7:30PM ET, 4:30PM PDT.
3. The NewsGang Live Simulcast is here. Use this channel if you want to lurk, chat and listen in without calling in to talk.
4. BlogHer will have an open thread, hosted by political editor Erin Kotecki Vest (aka QueenofSpain). I will link it up as soon as they post it. The discussion is live now.
5. Momocrats will also be hosting an open thread here.

My one recommendation: Stay away from the mainstream, who will be furiously spinning and calling results in time to get the speeches on TV before the East Coast goes to bed. You’re better off with the real-time returns — follow the LA Times Twitter Feed. Click here and then click “follow”.

Better commentary, facts, and yes, even punditry and predictions will be on the channels I listed above, with this promise: No pretense of objectivity — you’ll get people like me who are totally in Obama’s camp, others who are totally in Clinton’s camp, and lots of in-the-middle perspectives. Here’s the other thing: The wisdom of the network matters more than the party lines they spin over and over again on the mainstream nets.

Get your glass of wine and celebrate the next round of primaries with us. See ya there.

Technorati Tags: twitter, newsgang, qik, citizen reporting, commentary, election returns, primary Sphere: Related Content

]]> http://politics.drumsnwhistles.com/2008/05/election-returns-network-streams-to-watch/feed/ 5 http://politics.drumsnwhistles.com/2008/05/state-of-the-race-512008/ http://politics.drumsnwhistles.com/2008/05/state-of-the-race-512008/#comments Thu, 01 May 2008 15:00:00 +0000 Karoli http://politics.drumsnwhistles.com/2008/05/state-of-the-race-512008/

Full results, along with the delegate breakdown by state for the upcoming primaries.

Technorati Tags: Obama, Clinton, Democrats, delegates, stateoftherace

Evan Bayh really has nothing to worry about with regard to his concerns that the GOP will try to swiftboat Barack Obama. We have seen a veritable swiftboating frenzy in the past 72 hours, thanks to our corporate media pundits.

I’m sure Senator Bayh knows this already, but let’s review it again. Swiftboating is done right before a crucial election when there isn’t really enough time to undo the harm that’s done via campaign ads and obsessive media pundits.

If we were to consider the past few weeks of media frenzies (and I’d just as soon not), it’s clear the swiftboating has been attempted. Do you REALLY think the Republicans will be able to revive that bitter Reverend Wright dead horse six months from now?

If it doesn’t work now, why would it work then?

On the other hand, Senators Clinton and McCain have some ’splainin’ to do around the idea of a ‘gas holiday’. Here’s what Senator Obama has to say:

Technorati Tags: bayh, GOP, swiftboat, tactics, primaries, reality

Let’s be clear here. For all of the constant yammering about electoral votes in primary races, daily tracking polls that move one way or the other consistent with the whims of the media stream that day, uncounted states and superdelegates, the Democratic primary race is all about endurance.

We’re not here to open 47 cases and wait for the banker’s call before deciding whether the last 9 have the million bucks. That’s the game show George Bush played last week.

Survivor: Democrats is the name of this race. When Chris Wilson over at Slate makes the absurd call for Barack Obama to withdraw from the primary race despite having won the greatest number of primaries, having a solid delegate lead, raising the most money, closing the superdelegate gap, and acting as the driving force behind the new voter registrations of one million new Democrats, I can only ask: “Whose crack are you smoking?“

Somewhere in this silly post there’s a vague argument that Obama should withdraw for the sake of party unity because he would have a better chance in 2012. Or something. There’s more than a small whiff of bait in the tone mixed with some sarcasm, which would at least give credibility to the idea that I’m the sucker who has gulped it down. Guilty as charged, with the defense that some poor fool out there might actually take it seriously.

Think about that for a minute. I don’t know how anyone else would feel, but I’d hardly be willing to put my support behind someone who quit when they were 10 feet from the finish line. That’s like holding the immunity idol but not playing it because of some strange trust in one of the other players. Imagine telling a marathon runner to stop when the finish line is just around the corner because, hey, he’s young and can win next year but the woman behind him has worked soooo hard and wants it soooo much that he should let her win. How insulting and patronizing!

Imagine it:

November comes around. Hillary wins. She’s inaugurated. The next day she’s on the phone, that red phone, to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

“Mahmoud, I know you have the nukes. I know you can control Iraq. I know you can win. But I’m asking you to step down, and give me the nukes. Because I want them sooooo very much. If I can’t have them, I will obliterate you.”

As reports leak out of this conversation, a Slate blogger calls for Ahmadinejad to step down for the good of the world.

Yeah, right.

Note to Chris Wilson: Come on back to earth, that crack must’ve been laced with a heavy dose of illusion. The Democrats will survive this primary season, they’ll have a great convention, and Hillary Clinton will do her part to smooth ruffled feathers, as will Barack Obama. So relax, breathe, and enjoy the road to Denver. He or she who plays the smart game wins.

Bonus: Here’s a hidden treasure clue for the media pundits smoking up my living room tonight…listen to me now….are you ready?

Photo Credits:

• Hillary Clinton: SoggyDan, via Flickr
• Barack Obama: No. Nein, via Flickr

Technorati Tags: slate, chris wilson, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Survivor, DealorNoDeal