As much as I would have loved for this blog to be on the list, I am impressed with the list of bloggers that were given press credentials by the DNCC. Many of my “must-reads” are on there, including BlogHer, Jack and Jill Politics, Crooks and Liars, MOMocrats, AMERICAblog.com, Digby’s Hullabaloo, Firedoglake, MyDD, Obsidian Wings, Pam’s House Blend, RuralVotes and more.
I’m going to create an aggregated feed of their blogs to add to a page here so you can get up-to-date info when the convention starts.
Congratulations to all! It’s going to be an event we’ll not soon forget. History will be made.
The Rules Committee meeting on the 31st doesn’t make a whit of difference. Here’s why
Democratic National Committee rules require that the two states lose at least half of their convention delegates for holding elections too early, the party’s legal experts wrote in a 38-page memo
Because Clinton has mobilized her over-50-women base in Florida by comparing this situation to the 2000 election, despite the intellectual dishonesty of that idea, Florida will not accept anything other than full seating, despite their flagrant disregard of the rules.
There are two ways to seat 100% of the delegates:
- Give all delegates 1/2 votes
- Appeal to the credentials committee at the convention
]The analysis also said there is an option to restore 100 percent of the delegates — by a recommendation of the Credentials Committee that meets later this summer. However, that would mean a final decision would not be made until the first day of the convention in Denver since Credentials Committee decisions have to be approved by the full convention as it convenes — risking a floor fight.
The Clintons have pulled it out over and over and over again. They believe they can do it again this time, through a combination of stirring the FL/MI pot (despite the fact that Michigan’s election was ruled unconstitutional).
While I understand the Obama campaign’s desire to wait until South Dakota, Montana and Puerto Rico have voted before unleashing the alleged flood of superdelegates, I’d say it’s worth having some step out sooner might be better than later, not because I believe Clinton will win, but because the only way to focus completely on John McCain is to have enough superdelegates to meet the bar after Clinton forces the shift.
After Sunday, it won’t be 2025 for the nomination. It will be something between 2025 and 2210. Since it’s a given that the rules committee cannot arrive at a solution acceptable to the Clinton campaign, she will not concede, unless the superdelegates step up and speak.
Much is happening behind the scenes, I’m sure. The Virgin Island superdelegate who switched his endorsement from Clinton to Obama and then back to Clinton again yesterday is evidence of that, though I’d like to think most superdelegates are smart enough to not look like multi-flip-floppers.
We are now seeing the apex of the Clinton power play for the nomination. If she somehow manages to take it this way by some incredibly long-odds steal, the Democrats will lose to McCain.
At this point, I’m beyond even trying to be generous with her. I am grateful that my mother is an Obama supporter, because I am rapidly becoming rebellious and hardened toward women one generation away from me who are so goddamned determined to see a woman that they would elect an amoral, ambitious, greedy sociopath (thank you, Andrew Sullivan for framing it so well).
Obama is 48 delegates away from the nomination as it stands today. After Sunday, he will probably be somewhere between 48 and 233 delegates away. 86 pledged delegates remain. Assuming a 50/50 split, Obama will have 43 from Tuesday’s contests.
If you think I’m being paranoid, think again. Clinton is challenging the credentials for the Texas delegates won by Obama at the county conventions (see her website for info about organizing for these challenges…yes, it IS her campaign doing the challenging). Her surrogates strongarmed Obama delegates in Michigan (yes, THAT Michigan, the one that doesn’t count).
Either the superdelegates end it, or it goes to the convention floor, where Bill Clinton will be the number one goon acting for her.
I regret ever spending even a second of my life, much less several years, defending them both.
Seat the delegations, but move them to the end of the roll call to prevent any last-minute machinations on the convention floor.
I’m more or less convinced that if Clinton doesn’t get her way with the rules committee on Sunday, she’ll will take the battle to the convention, and the meeting of the Credentials committee. So seat them so she doesn’t get to resurrect the “your vote doesn’t count” argument for three months, but change the roll call order to bring their vote in after all of the other states who didn’t break the rules.
To: Mainstream Media Outlets, including the NY Times, Washington Post, Cable Networks and Broadcast News
From: An Informed Democrat
Re: Your addiction to misinformation, horseracing, and misplaced hope
Please be advised that this metric is worthless.
There is only ONE METRIC that matters when it comes to the nomination for the Democratic Party.
Read this carefully. The only metric for measurement is this: DELEGATES.
Let me repeat this one more time: It’s delegates. Delegates. DELEGATES.
Not popular vote. NOT. POPULAR. VOTE.
Got it? Good. Then quit writing articles that make that metric seem legit, when it is not. Quit trying to make it seem like the nomination is being ripped away unfairly from Hillary Clinton. Because it’s not. It’s about winning delegates in every state, not just the ‘big states’. If you need some brushing-up on the rules, the DNC has graciously laid it out in a format that high-school students everywhere understand and could articulate better than you hacks. Try taking a course in Convention 101.
This will be a very quick post because I’m in between meetings for the REAL job today.
Politico has a post up saying that Barack Obama will claim the nomination on May 20th. He just gave an interview to Brian Williams of NBC which will air tonight. In the clip I saw just now, he answered Williams’ question about May 20th this way (not an exact quote, but close):
“May 20th is an important date. If we have the majority of pledged delegates, we can make the claim that we’ve won….But it’s really important to bring in all the parties and make sure our attention is on the Republicans for the fall.”
Now this news follows news that the Clinton campaign is pushing back hard on the question of the Michigan and Florida delegates, and that Michigan has offered a compromise to seat their delegates where they would be seated 59/69.
In a letter sent from the Clinton campaign to Senator Obama, she asks him to work toward a resolution.
In addition, Senator Clinton made the following statement in an interview with USA Today :
“I have a much broader base to build a winning coalition on,” she said in an interview with USA TODAY. As evidence, Clinton cited an Associated Press article “that found how Sen. Obama’s support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again, and how whites in both states who had not completed college were supporting me.”
“There’s a pattern emerging here,” she said.
This type of statement reveals how far Hillary Clinton can go and how deeply she can divide the Democratic party. On the one hand, her letter seems to indicate an opening for negotiation of a gentle and classy exit from the race, yet on the other, her racial statements which clearly pander to anyone doubtful about Obama because of his race.
My opinion: Negotiate an exit, work on party unification before the convention, and come out strong against the McCain.
Let’s be clear here. For all of the constant yammering about electoral votes in primary races, daily tracking polls that move one way or the other consistent with the whims of the media stream that day, uncounted states and superdelegates, the Democratic primary race is all about endurance.
We’re not here to open 47 cases and wait for the banker’s call before deciding whether the last 9 have the million bucks. That’s the game show George Bush played last week.
Survivor: Democrats is the name of this race. When Chris Wilson over at Slate makes the absurd call for Barack Obama to withdraw from the primary race despite having won the greatest number of primaries, having a solid delegate lead, raising the most money, closing the superdelegate gap, and acting as the driving force behind the new voter registrations of one million new Democrats, I can only ask: “Whose crack are you smoking?“
Somewhere in this silly post there’s a vague argument that Obama should withdraw for the sake of party unity because he would have a better chance in 2012. Or something. There’s more than a small whiff of bait in the tone mixed with some sarcasm, which would at least give credibility to the idea that I’m the sucker who has gulped it down. Guilty as charged, with the defense that some poor fool out there might actually take it seriously.
Think about that for a minute. I don’t know how anyone else would feel, but I’d hardly be willing to put my support behind someone who quit when they were 10 feet from the finish line. That’s like holding the immunity idol but not playing it because of some strange trust in one of the other players. Imagine telling a marathon runner to stop when the finish line is just around the corner because, hey, he’s young and can win next year but the woman behind him has worked soooo hard and wants it soooo much that he should let her win. How insulting and patronizing!
November comes around. Hillary wins. She’s inaugurated. The next day she’s on the phone, that red phone, to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
“Mahmoud, I know you have the nukes. I know you can control Iraq. I know you can win. But I’m asking you to step down, and give me the nukes. Because I want them sooooo very much. If I can’t have them, I will obliterate you.”
As reports leak out of this conversation, a Slate blogger calls for Ahmadinejad to step down for the good of the world.
Note to Chris Wilson: Come on back to earth, that crack must’ve been laced with a heavy dose of illusion. The Democrats will survive this primary season, they’ll have a great convention, and Hillary Clinton will do her part to smooth ruffled feathers, as will Barack Obama. So relax, breathe, and enjoy the road to Denver. He or she who plays the smart game wins.
Bonus: Here’s a hidden treasure clue for the media pundits smoking up my living room tonight…listen to me now….are you ready?
Jeremiah Wright isn’t running for office. He’s interesting (even to me), but irrelevant. Calm down.